undecided?
So Iowa has spoken in the US primary election.
However, one of the "issues" of this most American of election systems is that it is gradual. If you follow the logic of Duncan Watt's research, the fact that we now know that Barack Obama is a winner makes it more likely for people to be swayed to voting for him in the rest of the primaries. There are exceptions to this of course - John McCain won in the 2000 New Hampshire Republican primary but lost in the more conservative states (like S. Carolina) after taking a hammering from Bush. But seems to have to be a big difference in beliefs/marketing pressure to undo the momentum and energy a candidate creates.
In case you are still making your choice, check out Glassbooth , an app that helps you make a decision on who to vote for based on your beliefs (thus saving you the time of reading through all the candidates web sites). Apparently I am 84% aligned with Joe Biden (who knew I was still such a lefty), but of course i will now never get to vote for him because he has dropped out of the race!
2 Comments:
good pos...
For what it is worth, here are my thoughts
1) the electoral landscape is very different because over half of the "echo boom" i.e. kids of the baby boomers are of voting age. Whereas young people are notoriously apathetic about voting, this generation is highly motivated against the war, climate change and the political establishment. So this election may shape up to be very like the '59 JFK/Nixon election of their parents. Vivian, what do you think?
2) many of these young people are evangelicals
3) evangelical pastors have been trained by Karl Rove that they can have a huge influence in elections (even if W bitterly disappointed them). Hence Huckabee...
Huckabee has momentum. he is not the joke people tried to make him out to be and gave a surprisingly good speech hitting the same notes as Obama "the next generation could be the greatest generation" "we are not your rulers, we are servants" (read: unlike the Bush/Clinton dynasties). He has momentum and he got the evangelicals out in his favor but there are many less in New Hampshire. He has no money which will be a problem later on when there is less and less time for grass roots campaigning.
Romney spent millions which will be good for him as the campaign gains momentum and once we hit Supertuesday, the day when many states vote simultaneously.
Guiliani is confidently biding his time but he is a pro-abortion (for now) New Yorker who dressed in drag and married three times, including once to his cousin. Also the war/security is temporarily receding as an issue.
McCain - I still think he may win the nomination, once all the other nominees have cannibalized each other. I believe he is the strongest candidate to put against the democrats as he is widely respected for his stance against torture and government corruption
Obama - he got young people and middle class out in rcord numbers in a state that is 95% white and has never elected a black man for anything. He has also raised as much money as Clinton he is an amazing speaker. He is probably the best public speaker since Clinton and he is gaining in confidence. Hope is clearly a theme he has been preparing for a long time (his book is called 'the audacity of hope'). Here's one he gave earlier this month. The last couple of minutes are particularly strong:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tydfsfSQiYc
Clinton - It will be very hard for Clinton to regain momentum without her strongest asset which is 'inevitability'. Bill looked gutted, perhaps because he sees this as a referendum on his own legacy and no one cares anymore. Nonetheless, he always got stronger in the face of adversity, perhaps she will too.
in case you thought everything has changed in America, it was reassuring to see that CNN spent most of this morning covering.... Britney being admitted to LA's Mt Sinai hospital on a Guerney.
What do you think?
I am very happy and proud of the brother for doing his thing. I can't wait to see how far this is going to go. thanks for the wonderful information!
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http://sakinasjourney.blogspot.com/
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